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October 31, 2023
Philadelphia, PA (Oct. 31, 2023) — Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held “Lending Climate in America” third quarter survey results reveals increased optimism in the economy despite some contradicting underlying factors.
Phoenix’s Q3 2023 “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders how they have changed their approach to pursuing new business. With the various changing environments (geopolitical, interest rate, etc.), 50% of lenders said that they have been less aggressive in chasing new opportunities. The other 50% are evenly split between maintaining standards when pursuing new business opportunities and becoming more aggressive in approaching new business.
When asked which loan class their respective institution was most concerned about from a risk-performance respective, 63% of lenders are most concerned about commercial and industrial loans, while the other 37% were most concerned about commercial real estate loans. All the surveyed lenders agree that commercial-based loans are more concerning than residential and consumer loans.
Additionally, Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders to identify when they believe interest rates will begin to decline. Of the lenders surveyed, seventy-five percent of lenders believe interest rates will begin to decrease in 2024, but that is split between the first half and the second half of the year. The other 25% of lenders believe the decrease will begin in 2025 or beyond.
Lender optimism in the U.S. economy declined slightly in the near term from 1.78 in Q1 2023 to 1.75 in Q3 2023. 50% of lenders believe the economy will perform at a “C” level during the next six months while 38% believe the economy will perform at a “D” level. More telling, lender expectations for the U.S. economy’s performance in the longer term increased dramatically from 1.78 to 2.50. Of the lenders surveyed, 50% believe the U.S. economy will perform at a “B” level during the next twelve months.
“Lenders appear to be more optimistic about the longer-term economic trends in the U.S. economy,” says Michael Jacoby, Senior Managing Director of Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held. “This is the first time in 2+ years that longer term expectations have increased well beyond short term expectations. Lenders foresee interest rate declines beginning in 2024 and report a continued relaxation in loan structures. Despite these positive signs, Constrained Liquidity in the Capital Markets was the number one factor selected by our survey respondents as potentially impacting the economy and none of our respondents reported that their customers expect strong or very strong growth in the next 6-12 months. It is unclear the extent to which this increase in optimism is anything more than wishful thinking, as many of the other metrics tracked by our survey suggest a continuation of difficult times ahead for borrowers.”
To see the full results of Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” Survey, please visit https://www.phoenixmanagement.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Q3-23-Lending-Survey-Report.pdf.
About Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held
For 36 years, Phoenix has provided smarter, operationally focused solutions for middle market companies in transition.
Phoenix Management Services® provides turnaround, crisis and interim management, and specialized advisory for both distressed and growth-oriented companies. Phoenix Investor Services® provides quality of earnings, operational diligence, Quality of Enterprise®, business integration, sell-side business preparation, and other transaction related support. Phoenix IB® provides seamless investment banking solutions including M&A advisory, complex restructurings and capital placements.
As a part of J.S. Held, Phoenix works alongside more than 1500 professionals globally and assists clients – corporations, insurers, law firms, governments, and institutional investors.
J.S. Held is a global consulting firm providing technical, scientific, financial, and strategic expertise across all assets and value at risk. Our professionals serve as trusted advisors to organizations facing high-stakes events demanding urgent attention, staunch integrity, clear-cut analysis, and an understanding of both tangible and intangible assets. The firm provides a comprehensive suite of services, products, and data that enable clients to navigate complex, contentious, and often catastrophic situations.
J.S. Held, its affiliates and subsidiaries are not certified public accounting firm(s) and do not provide audit, attest, or any other public accounting services. J.S. Held, its affiliates and subsidiaries are not law firms and do not provide legal advice. Securities offered through PM Securities, LLC, d/b/a Phoenix IB, a part of J.S. Held, member FINRA/ SIPC or Ocean Tomo Investment Group, LLC, a part of J.S. Held, member FINRA/ SIPC. All rights reserved.
Contact
Kristi L. Stathis+1 786 833 4864Kristi.Stathis@jsheld.com
Tags: Economic Outlook, Lenders
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