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November 16, 2009
Lending Survey Results Also Show Holiday Spending Expected to Stay Steady
PHILADELPHIA (November 17, 2009) —- Lenders expectations for the economy showed continued improvement for the next six months and even further optimism for the following six-month outlook. Lenders expect the economy to perform at a “high-C” level during the next six months. The “out six months” outlook improved to a “moderate-B” expectation level which is the highest forecasted level in the previous nine surveys, according to the results of last quarter’s Phoenix Management “Lending Climate in America” Survey.
Sixty-three percent of respondents believe the 2009 holiday retail spending activity will be very similar compared to 2008. Twenty-eight percent of lenders believe that the 2009 holiday retail spending activity will decrease compared to last year’s activity, as a result of increased consumer fiscal awareness and less disposable income. Nine percent of respondents are hopeful that holiday retail spending in 2009 will be higher than in 2008 due to improvements in consumer confidence. This is an extremely important economic indicator as consumer spending represents approximately two-thirds of our nation’s economy.
“It’s great to see such confidence in the direction our economy is headed,” said Phoenix Managing Director and Shareholder Michael Jacoby. “However it is interesting to see the differing opinions on the government’s impact on the economy during the past year.”
Results show that lenders are mixed regarding the U.S. Government’s impact on the financial industry during the past year. Forty-five percent of respondents believe the economy is in a better position today because of the government’s interaction than it would have been without its aid. Twenty-two percent of lenders feel that massive government spending of over $1 trillion in order to aid the economy will have a devastating impact on our nation’s massive fiscal deficit, which will hurt our long-term economic growth. Twenty percent of lenders are thankful that the government used quick and decisive actions which prevented the economy to fall into a deeper tailspin. Eleven percent believes that the government imposed too many restrictive regulations, which will hurt the country’s short- and long-term economic growth. The remaining two percent gave “Other” responses.
More than half of all respondents ” 55 percent ” believe that today’s business owners” main emphasis regarding their own business model is focused on short-term survival with an anticipated recovery. Even though over 50 percent of polled lenders indicate concern regarding their clients” business models in the current economic environment, 17 percent believe that business owners” are capitalizing on market opportunities as a result of other competitors” struggles, while 16 percent are confident in their business model navigating them through the current economic environment. According to lenders, twelve percent are solely focused on surviving the recession.
To see the full results of the Lending Climate in America Survey, please visit www.phoenixmanagement.com and click on Lending Survey.
Phoenix Management Services is an operationally focused advisory firm, providing turnaround, crisis and interim management services to middle market companies in transition. Since 1985, Phoenix has aggressively advocated on behalf of its clients in over 900 assignments nationwide by providing tangible operating solutions, effecting real change and performance improvement.
Phoenix Capital Resources specializes in providing capital advisory services to middle market companies in transition. As an operationally focused firm, Phoenix Capital assists distressed and growth-oriented companies with complex transactions including re-financings, restructurings, capital raising, mergers and acquisitions, recapitalizations and auctions in the context of a bankruptcy. Phoenix Capital’s mission is to maximize transactional value and return on investment for its clients.
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